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« Looking ahead for the late May 2015 storm chase | Main | A look ahead at the 2015 chase »

May 14, 2015 chase forecast

Today we're looking at another chance of strong thunderstorms with the slight risk of a supercell or two. Below is the 500 mb geopotnetial height along with water vapour and rap derived vorticity. There is a little speed max visible within the water vapour identified by the drier area through southern Arizona. 

The other feature is the little wave that is visible on the 500 mb heights and winds which is pushing through New Mexico at this time.

At the surface, there is a stationary boundary that is pushing north with a dryline sitting through central New Mexico. Soundings and meso analysis also show a descent laps rate plume that is anticipated to push east over the Texas Panhandle along with the dryline.

Late this afternoon a meandering dryline is expected to push into the westenr Texas Panhandle. Models show various bulge regions along the dryline but below is just the 12Z NAM forecast for late this afternoon. 

Mid level shear is relatively weak but low level shear is suffucient particulary late day as the 850 mb LLJ is set to pick up to 25-40 kts. So the idea for today is hopefully the upper level wave and 500mb speed max, all be it weak, will meet over the southern Texas Panhandle near the Lubbock region late day which will aid in large scale ascent with the dryline helping to focus initiation. With SBCAPE expected to be near 2500-4000 j/kg vertical velocities within any storms should be able to make use of any low level shear available for some rotating storms.

Don't want to venture to far south as we need to get north for Friday near the central parst of the KS/NE border into south central NE.