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May 29 - Chase Day 14 - Messy Storms in Kansas

Good evening from Pratt, Kansas ...

Today had potential to be a big tornado day. It was given a moderate risk by the SPC as well as a 15% hatched for tornadoes (lowered to 10% throughout the day).

Looking at the SPC reports there were tornadoes reported, most of them in Nebraska, outside of the hatched area. A couple of tornadoes were reported in Kansas, both very brief and no damage (one of them was likely a gustnado, not a tornado). There was one landspout reported in the Texas panhandle. The majority of the tornadoes occurred outside the hatched area.

Today panned out like a very messy LEWP day (line echo wave pattern). We had screaming south winds, good CAPE but there were some issues: there were a lot of outflow boundaries that negatively impacted storms today and also no real focus point for forcing and initiation. Storm went up and quickly formed into a messy line of storms with embedded rotation ... Fairly impossible to chase and see. 

From Salina, Kansas in the morning we headed south to Great Bend then toward Liberal, Kansas. We didn't make it all the way to Liberal because storms just weren't initiating in an organized, isolated fashion. We headed north toward Garden City and slightly north of town and watched. Some isolated storms started firing west of town so we headed that way but they too quickly formed into a line.

Calling it a day we headed to Dodge City to eat at Casa Alvarez (an incredible, family owned, hole-in-the-wall looking Mexican joint, really good!) then to Pratt, Kansas to spend the night.

We have a 30% hatched probabilistic for tomorrow's risk ... Shear should be more perpendicular tomorrow which will help keep storms isolated but we may run into the same problem we did today: too many left over outflow boundaries and no real great focus for initiation.

Thursday and Friday will be our last two chase days then we start to head home Saturday. We will likely be following severe weather home ... I can't believe this trip is coming to an end already!

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