Based on our personal and work schedules, we're pretty much unable to leave for the Alley until after May 15th. After looking at models over the past week, it's evident there's a good active period around the May 8-10 timeframe (somewhere in there) but isn't doable. After that, it looks like a bit of a lull in the weather. Longer range out from that, where it gets harder to forecast with any sort of confidence, looks like things pick back up. The question is when? The May 17-21 timeframe is showing some promise as is the end of May into early June. 

We'll see what the models have to offer over the course of the next week and decide when to pull the trigger and head down.

We're doing it, kids! We decided to give it a go again this year... and this are looking promising. We'll be heading down any time after May 15th based on work schedules and other obligations but so far, long range models and patterns are looking good for mid-to-end of May. 

If you like severe convective storms, there are silver linings to this current base state. Eventually, all of this +AAM is going to come crashing down. When it does, the result will be a focused period of intense severe convective storms. Recall mid-late May 2013...

— Victo☈ Gensini (@gensiniwx) April 10, 2019

We'll be meeting up with the gang once again this year and looking forward to getting out there. Last year wasn't the best chase season and a lot of friends didn't end up coming out because of the unfavourable pattern.

Victor has led this work in subseasonal tornado forecasting. These model ensembles suggest a decrease in Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) in mid-May. That decrease in AAM is often tied to big tornado numbers in the US. We’ll see what happens in the next four weeks! https://t.co/dSAEyXqLaF

— Bradford Barrett (@bsbarret) April 24, 2019