It's been an active year for some parts of the country when it comes to tornadoes, and quiet when it comes to others. The Prairies have seen a high number of tornadoes this year whereas Ontario has been on the quiet side of things. Ontario had a couple of early tornadoes towards the end of May near Orono and Bourget as well as a couple of early tornadoes in Quebec.

When it comes to tornadoes across Ontario and Quebec, normally an investigation is completed by Environment Canada to determine if in fact it was a tornado and what the Fujita scale rating is. In the Prairies, due to several reasons including the fact that the area coverage of the E.C. offices is so large, normally an investigation is not conducted unless there is significant damage done. That being said, the Canadian Prairies were a hot spot for tornadoes and storm chasers this summer. A high number of tornadoes were caught on video or camera making confirming these tornadoes an easier task. A great majority of the tornadoes in the Prairies were spotted by Canadian storm chaser Greg Johnson, as well Mark Robinson was lucky enough to make it out to Saskatchewan to see a tornado near Moose Jaw.

Image of tornado captured by Greg Johnson, TornadoHunter.ca, in Sasktchewan on July 24, 2012.

June and July were busy months for Canadian severe weather forecasters and storm chasers. There were many tornado warnings and tornadoes across Alberta and Saskatchewan. We also had a couple incredible hail storms in Alberta. After researching tornado reports and referring back to old tornado warnings and articles, I've put together a list of Canadian tornadoes in 2012. I apologize in advance if I missed any (especially in the Prairies). Some of the reports weren't too specific on the exact location of the tornado.

**Update** Two more items have been added to the list. A probable tornado near Midland, Ontario from August 11. Thank you to Heather Reynolds for updated me with the information. Also a landspout near Stettler, Alberta on June 9. Thank you Nevin deMilliano for the information.

It looks as though the unofficial tornado tally for Canada is 42.

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford
• August 8 - F0 near Plattsville
• August 16 - F1 near Dryden, F1 near Lac Seul, F1 in the Ear Falls-Wenesaga area, F1 in the Ear Falls-Gerry Lake area
• August 21 - F1 near Gananoque, F3 in Goderich
• August 24 - F1 from Cambridge to Burlington, F1 near Nairn, F1 near Neustadt

Here is a map of the locations of the tornadoes in Ontario this year:

So, as you can see, Environment Canada has confirmed four separate tornadoes on the August 16th day in northwestern Ontario. 

I was out chasing with Mark Robinson on Wednesday, August 24. We did not witness any of the tornadoes but we were sitting under a strongly rotating meso. The storm was pretty close to forming a tornado but in the end it didn't. We ended up meeting up with some fellow Weather Network staff in London where we shot some amazing lightning. It was a pretty hectic day but I'm glad I was able to get out and chase, it had been a while.  Check out my Photography section to see a wonderful lightning shot I got that day. I'll try to edit video soon but it's been pretty hectic with all the storms and hurricanes.

Photo credit: Joe Gowanlock

That's the tornado. There were scattered thunderstorms throughout Ontario and Michigan throughout the day. Earlier in the day a line of severe storms tore through the Greater Toronto Area causing power outages, tree damage and possibly even spawning a waterspout over Lake Ontario off the shore of Whitby.

I was woken up by the thunderstorms in Toronto and immediately grabbed my camera to film and went straight to radars, TV and social media. That's when I noticed the cell coming across Lake Huron. I messaged the meteorologist on staff at The Weather Network saying, "I know you're really busy right now but keep an eye on that cell over Lake Huron." About 5 - 10 minutes later, Environment Canada issues a tornado warning on the cell:

WWCN11 CWTO 211948
SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:48 PM EDT SUNDAY 21 AUGUST 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

TORNADO WARNING FOR:
=NEW= GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
=NEW= STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY.

      AT 3:30 PM EDT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN
      LAKE HURON.  THIS THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
      75 KM/H AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GODERICH ABOUT 4 PM.
      THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

      SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY PRODUCING TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR
      OCCURRING IN THE AREA.  LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
      RAINFALL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

Here's the menacing radar shot taken at 3:50pm ET (same time the warning was issued). Noticed the very well defined hook echo indicative of tornadic circulation:

When I saw that hook I had to do a double-take ... I thought this was "Tornado Alley" not southern Ontario. The storm came on shore and severely damaged the town of Goderich. You don't have to look far on the internet to find damage pictures and videos. One of the two compelling videos I've seen so far is the first video of the storm coming on shore and the second video of the damage afterwards:

 Video credit: cknxam920

Video credit: kshendryk

If you look carefully in the video of the storm coming on shore you can see the tornado within the rain curtains. Here is a still where you can make out the tornado hidden within.

Photo credit: cknxam920

Environment Canada has been conducting damage surveys in Goderich and determined the tornado was an F3. The last time Ontario saw an F3 tornado was on April 20, 1996 where two F3 tornadoes were confimed north of Fergus.

This Goderich tornado damaged roofs, destroyed walls, caused structural damage to homes, arenas and factories. Unfortunately there has been one confirmed fatality and numerous injuries. Trees were shredded, boats damaged and cars flipped over. 

I'm glad we were on the storm early here at The Weather Network and Environment Canada's warning was early as well. This is another reason why people should have weather radios. Unfortunate damage though ... Looking at it I was transported back to Tornado Alley. My thoughts are with the people of Goderich. The Weather Network's crew will be in Goderich throughout the day broadcasting live.

We had other reports of active weather today in Ontario. We had reports of a tornado in Gananoque (unconfirmed) with trees down, power line damage and damage to an above ground pool. We had reports of waterspouts over Lake Ontario near Whitby, over Lake Erie and over Georgian Bay near Parry Sound. Gusts were up to 80 - 100 km/h in Toronto with street and highway flooding. In East York they received almost 45 mm of rain in 10 minutes! 

As more information comes available I'll update this.

Irene Track      Irene Public Bulletin

There is a lot of uncertainty as to Irene's future due to the various land masses this storm will have to cross. Emily, a storm earlier this year, formed in a similar spot and got shredded by the terrain of Hispanoila (Emily's historical track). There are various model solutions to this storm. A southerly track could track it into the Gulf of Mexico, a northly track could track it through Florida and possible up the eastern coast. Again, there is a lot of uncertainty at this time as to the exact track of Irene. The National Hurricane Center's day 4 and day 5 track errors are 320 km - 400 km. Most tropical guidance indicate Irene becoming a hurricane. Irene could possible be the first hurricane of the 2011 season; we're at "I" and still no hurricane-status for any storms. However the intensity to which Irene reaches is highly dependent on the amount of land interaction it has with Hispanoila and Cuba.

According to the National Hurricane Center, this 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is the third earliest to have nine tropical systems named by this time. 2011 comes behind 2005 and 1936.

So what about Harvey? Harvey made landfall in Belize as a tropical storm and is bringing heavy rain to Belize, Guatemala, western Honduras and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Harvey is expected to dissipate into a depression tomorrow as it loses its energy source over land.

So let's tally up this year's Atlantic season. So far we've had ...

• Arlene (Tropical Storm)
• Bret (Tropical Storm)
• Cindy (Tropical Storm)
• Don (Tropical Storm - replaced retired "Dennis")
• Emily (Tropical Storm)
• Franklin (Tropical Storm)
• Gert (Tropical Storm)
• Harvey (currently active)
• Irene (currently active)
• Jose
• Katia (replacing retired "Katrina")
• Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rina (replacing retired "Rita")
• Sean (replacing retired "Stan")
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney (replacing retired "Wilma")

If you click on the retired storm names, you can read the National Hurricane Center's great and in-depth storm summaries.

One would think spotting a tornado path through a heavily wooded area would be easy - this would be true but not if there is a lot of logging done in the area. This is the issue with try to map out these tornadoes. The rating of these tornadoes may be changed to an F1 after further investigation but that has not been finalized by Environment Canada yet. The maximum F-rating tree damage can be given is F1. As the investigation progresses, there may be other tracks since there were various storm cells are similar in intensity that day; It just so happens that only one was well documented. See below for Fujita scale.

So where does out tornado count stand?

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford, Ontario
• August 16 - preliminary F0, Dryden, Ontario - **evidence found that there may have been more than one tornado**
• August 16 - no F-rating yet, Ear Falls, Ontario - **evidence found that there may have been more than one tornado**  

Investigation is on-going and I will be updating as Environment Canada provides more information. It is possible that there may be more tornadoes discovered.

   FUJITA SCALE

Add another tornado to the list for Ontario; Environment Canada has confirmed its fourth Ontario tornado today in northwestern Ontario in the area from possibly west of Kenora through to between Lac Seul and Sioux Lookout.

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford, Ontario
• August 16 - north-western Ontario - **evidence found that there may have been more than one tornado**

            ** see below for Fujita scale **

Of course this is all preliminary estimates based on radar, storm reports, pictures and videos. Here's the preliminary summary from Environment Canada:

     AWCN12 CWTO 162249
     WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO ISSUED BY
     ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:36 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.

     -------------------------------------------------------------
     ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

     ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS CONFIRMED, THROUGH PHOTO AND VIDEO EVIDENCE,
     ONTARIO'S FOURTH TORNADO OF THE SEASON. EARLY INDICATIONS
     ARE THAT A TORNADO WITH A LONG TRACK - ROUGHLY 80 KM - FROM WEST
     OF KENORA NORTHEASTWARD TO BETWEEN LAC SEUL AND SIOUX LOOKOUT AND
     POSSIBLY BEYOND OCCURED ON TUESDAY AUGUST 16TH BETWEEN ABOUT 4:15 PM
     AND 5:45 PM EDT.

     A FUJITA SCALE RATING OF THIS STORM HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED, BUT
     WOULD BE DETERMINED BASED ON EVIDENCE OF DAMAGE THAT MAY BE
     FORTHCOMING.
 
     THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS FURTHER INFORMATION IS RECEIVED.

     THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT
     CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.

     END/OSPC

So what happened? The dynamics came together quite well for the development of an isolated tornado.  A deep trough centered over Manitoba and its associated fronts provided the necessary lift to create these thunderstorms. At the time, the RUC model was initializing roughly CAPE of 1500+ J/kg and surface - 1 km helicity was up to 400 m²/s². The first tornado warning was issued based on reports of a funnel cloud near Dryden airport.

     AT 4:36 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.
     ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

     TORNADO WARNING FOR:
     =NEW= DRYDEN - VERMILION BAY
     =NEW= SIOUX LOOKOUT - EASTERN LAC SEUL.

           AT 4:30 PM EDT A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR DRYDEN AIRPORT.
           THIS FUNNEL CLOUD MAY BE IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AND THUS BE
           A TORNADO. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM TRACKING
           NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 70 KM/H.

The warning was then expanded to include other areas of northwestern Ontario:

     AT 5:49 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.
     ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

     TORNADO WARNING FOR:
     =NEW= KENORA - GRASSY NARROWS - WHITEDOG
     =NEW= DRYDEN - VERMILION BAY
     =NEW= EAR FALLS - PERRAULT FALLS - WESTERN LAC SEUL
           SIOUX LOOKOUT - EASTERN LAC SEUL.

All tornado warnings were dropped close to 7:00pm EDT. Interestingly enough, here are the METAR reports from Sioux Lookout airport from 5:23pm - 5:38pm EDT:

     CYXL 162138Z CCA 18016G21KT 15SM +FC FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW              MOVG E OCNL -SHRA

     CYXL 162123Z 18016G21KT 15SM TS FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW MOVG E            OCNL -SHRA

A full investigation of the tornado will hopefully reveal the start and end points and whether or not it was in fact one very long-track tornado or several tornadoes from the same parent storm. An 80 km track on a tornado is an incredibly long track tornado. Damage surveys are hard to conduct in northwestern Ontario because of the population density in the area.

Here's a couple of photos of the tornado:

Photo credit: Robert Fletcher

Photo credit: Jeff Antoszek

These above pictures were acquired from The Weather Network's photos and videos section on their website. For more pictures, videos and an article about the event you can watch The Weather Network or visit this link to a story of the tornado: The Weather Network - Tornado touches down northwest of Sioux Lookout Airport.

***UPDATE***

The Forest Fire Service of the Ministry of Natural Resources in conjunction with Environment Canada dispatched a helicopter today from Dryden airport to survey the track and any potential damage done by the tornado yesterday. No substantial damage was seen from the helicopter. Based on this, the tornado has been given a prelimiary rating of F0 on the Fujita scale.

   FUJITA SCALE

• 14 - 19 named storms (winds 63+ km/h)
• 7 - 10 of those as hurricanes (winds 119+ km/h)
• 3 - 5 of those as major hurricanes (winds 178+ km/h, category 3, 4 or 5)

If you would like to read the press release for the hurricane outlook, go here: NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

So how has this season shaped up so far? Here are the storms that we've had form and dissipate this year:

• Tropical Storm Arlene
• Tropical Storm Bret
• Tropical Storm Cindy
• Tropical Storm Don
• Tropical Storm Emily
• Tropical Storm Franklin
• Tropical Storm Gert

Currently we have Tropical Storm Gert in the Atlantic. If Gert does not become a hurricane (which current forecast models are indicated will not happen), this would be the first time the naming system has arrived at "G" without a hurricane. A through F this year have all made "Tropical Storm" status, but no "Hurricane" status.

A great website to visit which has the historical tracks is: STORMPULSE.  Scroll to the bottom of the site and you will notice the names of this year's storms. Click on the names and you can see the individual historical tracks of these storms. You can also view currently active storms as well as areas of interest. Another option in the top right corner is you can turn on the "Forecast Models". This allows you to view different forecast models simulataneously to see where they think the currently active / potentially forming storms will track.

So what is Gert up to? The majority of forecast models have current remaining out-to-sea and not directly affecting any of Canada's or the United States' Atlantic provinces and states. The Bermuda Weather Service also cancelled any Tropical Storm warnings or watches for the island.

The latest track maps for Tropical Storm Gert can be found at both these sites: Canadian Hurricane Centre, National Hurricane Centre.

The latest Canadian discussion can be found here: Canadian Hurricane Centre Discussion for Gert.

What is up next? Currently there is a low potential disturbance affecting the Lesser Antilles. Here is a list of the storm names for 2011 (which is the same base-list as 2005): 

• Arlene (Tropical Storm)
• Bret (Tropical Storm)
• Cindy (Tropical Storm)
• Don (Tropical Storm - replaced retired "Dennis")
• Emily (Tropical Storm)
• Franklin (Tropical Storm)
• Gert (Tropical Storm)
• Harvey
• Irene
• Jose
• Katia (replacing retired "Katrina")
• Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rina (replacing retired "Rita")
• Sean (replacing retired "Stan")
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney (replacing retired "Wilma")

If you click on the retired storm names, you can read the National Hurricane Center's great and in-depth storm summaries.

Ontario can add another tornado to it's "confirmed" pile this year. Now we have:

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford, Ontario

So what does today hold?

Prairies:  The most interesting set up for thunderstorms today seems to be in the areas of south-eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Surface-based and mid-level CAPE values are in the 2000 - 4000 J/kg range with hodographs and shear-values supporting the development of severe weather. With the dynamics the way they are, the possibility is there for the development of severe discrete thunderstorms including supercells. Hodographs are suggesting backed winds which would aid in the development of these supercells as well as created a risk of tornadoes today. If you're in south-eastern Saskatchewan or southern Manitoba, stay alert and be on the lookout for severe weather today. With this upper-level disturbance across the Prairies, there's a risk of thunderstorms through the British Columbia interior and south-central Alberta. There is some support for a few severe cells to form around the Calgary area so be on the alert in that region as well. NOAA's NWS's Storm Prediction Center is also including portions of the Canadian Prairies in their "slight risk" for severe storms today as well as their 2% possibility of tornadoes:

Click image for link to SPC website.

If you would like to read Environment Canada's forecast discussion for the Prairies today, it can be found here: Significant Weather Discussion by the Prairies and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre. The discussions are updated at roughly 1200Z and 1900Z (8:00am/3:00pm EDT, 7am/2pm CDT).

Ontario: There is the risk of showers and thunderstorms today across most of southern Ontario extending from the north shores of Lake Erie (including Niagara region), north through cottage country, through the Greater Toronto Area and east towards the Ottawa Valley. The biggest risk with these storms is that the dynamics are such that these storms could be slow-moving or quasi-stationary creating high rainfall rates which could lead to localized flooding.

If you would like to read Environment Canada's convective weather outlook or special weather statements, both can be found here: Special Weather Statements and Thunderstorm Potential by the Ontario Storm Prediction Centre. The special weather statements are updated as needed, the thunderstorm outlooks are updated at roughly 0800Z and 2030Z (4:00am/4:30pm EDT).

So ... Canadian active weather? Well June was somewhat eventful in Ontario but July has been quiet. So far there have been two official tornadoes this 2011 year:

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec

June 8th was a very active day in Ontario with major storms rolling through causing a ton of wind damage. But southern Ontario in July? Not much at all ... Eastern Ontario is the exception, they've had quite a bit of thunderstorm activity this month. The GTA has been dry and inactive. Toronto's Pearson airport, as of today, has only recorded 4 mm of rain since July 1. The grass is brown and crunchy. 

The Prairies have been very active this month with almost perpetual severe storms and tornado warnings. One of the most recent tornadic events was on July 7 just northwest of Calgary in the area around Sundre, Alberta. We had a nearly stationary supercell grind over this area for a couple of hours spawning 3 separate tornadoes. Here's a video of the tornado near Bergen, Alberta: Bergen, Alberta Tornado. The hail has also been massive as well with reports of baseball size hail.

So what's the severe weather looking like for this weekend? Let's break it down by province ...

Atlantic Canada

Nothing much to speak of thunderstorm-wise. Saturday: there is a slight risk of an isolated thundershower in eastern New Brunswick from Fredericton eastward. Sunday: looks great, no storms forecasted.

Quebec

With a ridge in place, no thunderstorms are forecast Saturday. Sunday: risk for thunderstorms around Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.

Southern Ontario

Saturday: slight risk of lake breeze thunderstorms or showers into the afternoon evening. Sunday: Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from Windsor to Ottawa Valley. Models are suggesting southwestern Ontario is showing 1500 - 2000 J/kg CAPE, little capping. Shear is on the low end though. Eastern Ontario, models are putting in higher CAPE values with 1500 - 3000 J/kg, little capping. Again, shear is on the low end.

Nothern Ontario

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday. CAPE values are decent, little capping. However, shear is low.

Prairies

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms through southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba along the international border on Saturday. The shear looks low but the CAPE values are high considering day times highs for portions of the southern Prairies are going to be into the 30's. Sunday the potential is there for some thunderstorms in southern Manitoba but the POP's are low.

British Columbia

Risk of some non-severe storms in the Interior both Saturday and Sunday but nothing severe.

So there's a quick overview of the thunderstorm activity this weekend. The other news? It's going to be HOT. Close to "heat wave" hot in portions of the Prairies and Ontario. Officially a heat wave is 3 or more consecutive days of 32°C or higher. Humidex values are going to be close to or above 40. Seriously, take it easy this weekend if you're in those areas of Canada.

I promise to update this website more. I'd like to do some more photography but the weather hasn't been cooperating. It's been sunny and gorgeous ... I want to photograph storms! Well, we still have a couple of months left for summer severe weather so here's hoping.

Hwy 401 towards London near Ayr before line came through.

This happened between roughly 3:10pm - 3:25pm (both times I checked the block as the whole thing occurred). This corresponds with the OSPC's storm summary and their tornado reports. We were passing by Ayr at the same time as the tornado report but due to the fact that visibility was so pour we didn't see any rotation. From our vantage point it was all straight line winds. Further up the line there were tornado reports from Blandford-Blenheim as well as Fergus (all still under investigation).

After that line went through we had fairly low confidence that there would be any more storms in behind it. We drove around for a while monitoring current conditions then called it a day. After that line went through, all that was left was a giant zone of subsidence (NVA for all you weather nerds!). For those who don't know: subsidence is the downward motion of air. This inhibits cloud formation since we need rising motion for clouds to form.