Tornado Statistics

So I was poking around on NOAA's Storm Prediction Center website and found some interesting tornado statistics. April 2011 has been an incredible month considering the amount of tornadoes and severe weather outbreaks the United States have seen. I decided to have a look around and see which years hold some records. One of the records I looked at is: "Which month since 1950 holds the record for most tornadoes?" Here are the top five:

1. May  2003 - 543
2. June 1992 - 399
3. May  1995 - 391
4. June 1998 - 376
5. May  1991 - 335

To see the rest of the list, visit this link: Tornado Statistics. Now of course this does notinclude April 2011. There are some discrepancies amongst media/government websites with regards to how many tornadoes April 2011 has seen so far. Based on preliminary reports (not confirmed tornadoes), NOAA's SPC has received 559 reports of tornadoes in April 2011 as of yesterday morning (April 23). Again, I stress, these are the preliminary reports, not the confirmed reports. There tends to be numerous duplications in tornado reports due to the fact that various people are seeing the tornado from various vantage points. Until proper surveys are done, we cannot know if it was, for example, three tornadoes or one tornado.

It is interesting to see where the tornadoes have been occurring this year so far. Here is a graphic, again from NOAA's SPC, showing where the tornadoes have occurred up until April 23, 2011:

Click the image to go to the website.

Click on the image above and it will take you to the statistics site where I got the graphic from. Some concern for storm chasing this year is that most will be chasing in the non-traditional Tornado Alley. One of those reasons is the influence of La Nina and ENSO in transition from La Nina to neutral. There are several papers written about the effects of the ENSO cycle on tornadoes and tornado outbreaks but unfortunately there just isn't enough research on the matter to make any solid conclusions. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the severe weather season in the U.S. pans out and if the potential tornado outbreaks in May and June 2011 stick to traditional areas of Tornado Alley. It will also be interesting to see how the severe weather season in Canada will shape up, especially around the Great Lakes.

Courtesy: NOAA's NSSL.

All Sorts of Weather

Drove into work this morning in torrential downpours, some lightning and dense fog.  I could barely see in front of me so it was an extra long drive.  Things started to clear out here in southern Ontario and now it's beautiful, sunny and -- get this -- 19°C in Toronto! With all the rain this morning, people doubted we would get to 19°C. But now that we've reached that temperature, I'm certainly not complaining.

Rain & Snow This Weekend

Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for all of Ontario for the incoming system this weekend.  Rain will most likely start tonight in Windsor, GTA during the night and eastern Ontario by Saturday afternoon.  Right now it looks like roughly 15 - 30 mm of rain for southern Ontario with the heavier amounts along the shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.  There's also the risk of a thunderstorm Saturday embedded in the rain in southwestern Ontario. In northern Ontario they'll be dealing with snow ... possibility of 15 cm on the north shore of Lake Superior.  I shudder at the thought!  It will be windy as well so it might be one of those days where having an umbrella doesn't make a difference ... I would opt for the rain jacket / umbrella combination!

U.S. Severe Weather Outbreak

Currently a severe weather outbreak taking place in Oklahoma and Kansas.  The whole line is lighting up with supercells. 

The SPC has issued a PDS Tornado Watch which stands for "Particularly Dangerous Situation".  The watch has very strong wording:

   NUMEROUS TORNADOES
   INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
   ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
   WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
   HAIL TO 4.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

Here are the watch probabilities.  Notice the probability of 1 or more strong tornadoes (F2 - F5) is moderate:

Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (60%)

Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (50%)

Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

I am very jealous of all the chasers out there right now and which I could be chasing at this very moment.  At the same time, however, I hope that everyone, chasers and residents alike, are safe and receive timely warnings.  Now which cell is going to "tornado" first?

Oh Spring ...

The ducks are back in my pool.  Yes - that's right - ducks.  Every year a female and male duck canoodle and flirt in my pool so definitely spring time.  The weather here in southern Ontario over the next couple of days is relatively uneventful and a little on the cool side.  Looks like we could have a bit of a wet weekend here.  Could be worse though; Albertans are getting snow!  Looks like up to 15 cm of it in some areas! I'm fairly graetful sometimes to live in the Great Lakes for that reason.  If you head to my home page now you'll find Alberta in the red for warnings (scroll to the bottom).

State-side they're dealing with another potential severe weather outbreak.  The NWS SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe storms tomorrow: Convective Outlooks. There's a link to the convective outlooks or you can go to my home page and scroll to the bottom and they're all there.

   LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARDS EVENING AS LARGE CLOCKWISE
   CURVED HODOGRAPHS /300-450 EFFECTIVE SRH/ WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF 
   STRONG TORNADO/S...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

Looks like a good set up for chasing so if you're heading out: have fun and be safe.  That area isn't the greatest "chase territory" and can be a little dangerous due to bad road networks, trees, and hills making visibility poor.  Roughly 3 weeks away from my trip!

Update on Thursday, April 14, 2011 at 10:54 AM by Dayna Vettese

SPC's convective outlook today remains relatively similar to yesterday's.  Their tornado outlook is interesting.  If you click on today's convective outlook (located on my homepage) you can click "Tornado" and it will show you tornado probabilities for today. There's a 15% tornado risk (as of 13Z) with a hatched area.  This hatched area indicates that there is 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. Should be an interesting day.