Ontario Tornadoes

= UPDATE: FUJITA RATING BUT INVESTIGATING STILL ON-GOING =

Add another tornado to the list for Ontario; Environment Canada has confirmed its fourth Ontario tornado today in northwestern Ontario in the area from possibly west of Kenora through to between Lac Seul and Sioux Lookout.

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford, Ontario
• August 16 - north-western Ontario - **evidence found that there may have been more than one tornado**

            ** see below for Fujita scale **

Of course this is all preliminary estimates based on radar, storm reports, pictures and videos. Here's the preliminary summary from Environment Canada:

     AWCN12 CWTO 162249
     WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO ISSUED BY
     ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:36 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.

     -------------------------------------------------------------
     ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==

     ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS CONFIRMED, THROUGH PHOTO AND VIDEO EVIDENCE,
     ONTARIO'S FOURTH TORNADO OF THE SEASON. EARLY INDICATIONS
     ARE THAT A TORNADO WITH A LONG TRACK - ROUGHLY 80 KM - FROM WEST
     OF KENORA NORTHEASTWARD TO BETWEEN LAC SEUL AND SIOUX LOOKOUT AND
     POSSIBLY BEYOND OCCURED ON TUESDAY AUGUST 16TH BETWEEN ABOUT 4:15 PM
     AND 5:45 PM EDT.

     A FUJITA SCALE RATING OF THIS STORM HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED, BUT
     WOULD BE DETERMINED BASED ON EVIDENCE OF DAMAGE THAT MAY BE
     FORTHCOMING.
 
     THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS FURTHER INFORMATION IS RECEIVED.

     THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT
     CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT.

     END/OSPC

So what happened? The dynamics came together quite well for the development of an isolated tornado.  A deep trough centered over Manitoba and its associated fronts provided the necessary lift to create these thunderstorms. At the time, the RUC model was initializing roughly CAPE of 1500+ J/kg and surface - 1 km helicity was up to 400 m²/s². The first tornado warning was issued based on reports of a funnel cloud near Dryden airport.

     AT 4:36 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.
     ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

     TORNADO WARNING FOR:
     =NEW= DRYDEN - VERMILION BAY
     =NEW= SIOUX LOOKOUT - EASTERN LAC SEUL.

           AT 4:30 PM EDT A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED NEAR DRYDEN AIRPORT.
           THIS FUNNEL CLOUD MAY BE IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND AND THUS BE
           A TORNADO. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM TRACKING
           NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 70 KM/H.

The warning was then expanded to include other areas of northwestern Ontario:

     AT 5:49 PM EDT TUESDAY 16 AUGUST 2011.
     ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO...

     TORNADO WARNING FOR:
     =NEW= KENORA - GRASSY NARROWS - WHITEDOG
     =NEW= DRYDEN - VERMILION BAY
     =NEW= EAR FALLS - PERRAULT FALLS - WESTERN LAC SEUL
           SIOUX LOOKOUT - EASTERN LAC SEUL.

All tornado warnings were dropped close to 7:00pm EDT. Interestingly enough, here are the METAR reports from Sioux Lookout airport from 5:23pm - 5:38pm EDT:

     CYXL 162138Z CCA 18016G21KT 15SM +FC FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW              MOVG E OCNL -SHRA

     CYXL 162123Z 18016G21KT 15SM TS FEW020 BKN045CB OVC120 RMK CF2CB4AC2 TORNADO NW MOVG E            OCNL -SHRA

A full investigation of the tornado will hopefully reveal the start and end points and whether or not it was in fact one very long-track tornado or several tornadoes from the same parent storm. An 80 km track on a tornado is an incredibly long track tornado. Damage surveys are hard to conduct in northwestern Ontario because of the population density in the area.

Here's a couple of photos of the tornado:

Photo credit: Robert Fletcher

Photo credit: Jeff Antoszek

These above pictures were acquired from The Weather Network's photos and videos section on their website. For more pictures, videos and an article about the event you can watch The Weather Network or visit this link to a story of the tornado: The Weather Network - Tornado touches down northwest of Sioux Lookout Airport.

***UPDATE***

The Forest Fire Service of the Ministry of Natural Resources in conjunction with Environment Canada dispatched a helicopter today from Dryden airport to survey the track and any potential damage done by the tornado yesterday. No substantial damage was seen from the helicopter. Based on this, the tornado has been given a prelimiary rating of F0 on the Fujita scale.

   FUJITA SCALE

Rating	Wind Speed
F0	64 - 116 km/h
F1	117 - 180 km/h
F2	181 - 252 km/h
F3	253 - 330 km/h
F4	331 - 417 km/h
F5	418 - 509 km/h

Hurricane Season

It's been busy ... But uneventful: That would describe this year's hurricane season so far. NOAA's National Hurricane Center updated their hurricane season outlook for the Atlantic basin with the following information:

• 14 - 19 named storms (winds 63+ km/h)
• 7 - 10 of those as hurricanes (winds 119+ km/h)
• 3 - 5 of those as major hurricanes (winds 178+ km/h, category 3, 4 or 5)

If you would like to read the press release for the hurricane outlook, go here: NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

So how has this season shaped up so far? Here are the storms that we've had form and dissipate this year:

• Tropical Storm Arlene
• Tropical Storm Bret
• Tropical Storm Cindy
• Tropical Storm Don
• Tropical Storm Emily
• Tropical Storm Franklin
• Tropical Storm Gert

Currently we have Tropical Storm Gert in the Atlantic. If Gert does not become a hurricane (which current forecast models are indicated will not happen), this would be the first time the naming system has arrived at "G" without a hurricane. A through F this year have all made "Tropical Storm" status, but no "Hurricane" status.

A great website to visit which has the historical tracks is: STORMPULSE.  Scroll to the bottom of the site and you will notice the names of this year's storms. Click on the names and you can see the individual historical tracks of these storms. You can also view currently active storms as well as areas of interest. Another option in the top right corner is you can turn on the "Forecast Models". This allows you to view different forecast models simulataneously to see where they think the currently active / potentially forming storms will track.

So what is Gert up to? The majority of forecast models have current remaining out-to-sea and not directly affecting any of Canada's or the United States' Atlantic provinces and states. The Bermuda Weather Service also cancelled any Tropical Storm warnings or watches for the island.

The latest track maps for Tropical Storm Gert can be found at both these sites: Canadian Hurricane Centre, National Hurricane Centre.

The latest Canadian discussion can be found here: Canadian Hurricane Centre Discussion for Gert.

What is up next? Currently there is a low potential disturbance affecting the Lesser Antilles. Here is a list of the storm names for 2011 (which is the same base-list as 2005): 

• Arlene (Tropical Storm)
• Bret (Tropical Storm)
• Cindy (Tropical Storm)
• Don (Tropical Storm - replaced retired "Dennis")
• Emily (Tropical Storm)
• Franklin (Tropical Storm)
• Gert (Tropical Storm)
• Harvey
• Irene
• Jose
• Katia (replacing retired "Katrina")
• Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rina (replacing retired "Rita")
• Sean (replacing retired "Stan")
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney (replacing retired "Wilma")

If you click on the retired storm names, you can read the National Hurricane Center's great and in-depth storm summaries.

Thunderstorms in Canada

It's been quite active across the country this July and August. From flooding thunderstorms in British Columbia to flooding rains in Atlantic Canada, everyone has had a taste of summer severe weather.

Ontario can add another tornado to it's "confirmed" pile this year. Now we have:

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
• July 23 - F2 between Wyoming and Watford, Ontario

So what does today hold?

Prairies:  The most interesting set up for thunderstorms today seems to be in the areas of south-eastern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba. Surface-based and mid-level CAPE values are in the 2000 - 4000 J/kg range with hodographs and shear-values supporting the development of severe weather. With the dynamics the way they are, the possibility is there for the development of severe discrete thunderstorms including supercells. Hodographs are suggesting backed winds which would aid in the development of these supercells as well as created a risk of tornadoes today. If you're in south-eastern Saskatchewan or southern Manitoba, stay alert and be on the lookout for severe weather today. With this upper-level disturbance across the Prairies, there's a risk of thunderstorms through the British Columbia interior and south-central Alberta. There is some support for a few severe cells to form around the Calgary area so be on the alert in that region as well. NOAA's NWS's Storm Prediction Center is also including portions of the Canadian Prairies in their "slight risk" for severe storms today as well as their 2% possibility of tornadoes:

Click image for link to SPC website.

If you would like to read Environment Canada's forecast discussion for the Prairies today, it can be found here: Significant Weather Discussion by the Prairies and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre. The discussions are updated at roughly 1200Z and 1900Z (8:00am/3:00pm EDT, 7am/2pm CDT).

Ontario: There is the risk of showers and thunderstorms today across most of southern Ontario extending from the north shores of Lake Erie (including Niagara region), north through cottage country, through the Greater Toronto Area and east towards the Ottawa Valley. The biggest risk with these storms is that the dynamics are such that these storms could be slow-moving or quasi-stationary creating high rainfall rates which could lead to localized flooding.

If you would like to read Environment Canada's convective weather outlook or special weather statements, both can be found here: Special Weather Statements and Thunderstorm Potential by the Ontario Storm Prediction Centre. The special weather statements are updated as needed, the thunderstorm outlooks are updated at roughly 0800Z and 2030Z (4:00am/4:30pm EDT).

It's Been a While...

Well it has definitely been a while since I've posted and updated this website ... I apologise. It's been a month and a half since I returned from my U.S. storm chase. It was quite the adventure. Weather-wise, it was less active than the 2010 season but we saw some great storms, a beautiful tornado near Ada, Oklahoma. If you want to see the pictures and videos from the 2011 or 2010 chase, visit the Photography and Video sections. 

So ... Canadian active weather? Well June was somewhat eventful in Ontario but July has been quiet. So far there have been two official tornadoes this 2011 year:

• April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
• June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec

June 8th was a very active day in Ontario with major storms rolling through causing a ton of wind damage. But southern Ontario in July? Not much at all ... Eastern Ontario is the exception, they've had quite a bit of thunderstorm activity this month. The GTA has been dry and inactive. Toronto's Pearson airport, as of today, has only recorded 4 mm of rain since July 1. The grass is brown and crunchy. 

The Prairies have been very active this month with almost perpetual severe storms and tornado warnings. One of the most recent tornadic events was on July 7 just northwest of Calgary in the area around Sundre, Alberta. We had a nearly stationary supercell grind over this area for a couple of hours spawning 3 separate tornadoes. Here's a video of the tornado near Bergen, Alberta: Bergen, Alberta Tornado. The hail has also been massive as well with reports of baseball size hail.

So what's the severe weather looking like for this weekend? Let's break it down by province ...

Atlantic Canada

Nothing much to speak of thunderstorm-wise. Saturday: there is a slight risk of an isolated thundershower in eastern New Brunswick from Fredericton eastward. Sunday: looks great, no storms forecasted.

Quebec

With a ridge in place, no thunderstorms are forecast Saturday. Sunday: risk for thunderstorms around Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.

Southern Ontario

Saturday: slight risk of lake breeze thunderstorms or showers into the afternoon evening. Sunday: Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from Windsor to Ottawa Valley. Models are suggesting southwestern Ontario is showing 1500 - 2000 J/kg CAPE, little capping. Shear is on the low end though. Eastern Ontario, models are putting in higher CAPE values with 1500 - 3000 J/kg, little capping. Again, shear is on the low end.

Nothern Ontario

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday. CAPE values are decent, little capping. However, shear is low.

Prairies

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms through southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba along the international border on Saturday. The shear looks low but the CAPE values are high considering day times highs for portions of the southern Prairies are going to be into the 30's. Sunday the potential is there for some thunderstorms in southern Manitoba but the POP's are low.

British Columbia

Risk of some non-severe storms in the Interior both Saturday and Sunday but nothing severe.

So there's a quick overview of the thunderstorm activity this weekend. The other news? It's going to be HOT. Close to "heat wave" hot in portions of the Prairies and Ontario. Officially a heat wave is 3 or more consecutive days of 32°C or higher. Humidex values are going to be close to or above 40. Seriously, take it easy this weekend if you're in those areas of Canada.

I promise to update this website more. I'd like to do some more photography but the weather hasn't been cooperating. It's been sunny and gorgeous ... I want to photograph storms! Well, we still have a couple of months left for summer severe weather so here's hoping.

First Ontario Chase - 2011

Yesterday was our first Ontario chase of 2011. I woke up at around 1pm (after working a night shift), grabbed my computer and started looking around at models / watches / warnings, etc. I then called fellow meteorologists Brad and Mark. Mark was about to head out to chase so Brad and I decided it would be worth it to head out as well. We were joined by two of Brad's colleagues as well. We headed down the 401 targeting between Brantford and Woodstock. Since we were running a bit then we actually intercepted the line while driving on the 401 as it blasted through the Ayr area. In a matter of 10 seconds we went from no rain to torrential downpour and severe winds and were being blown all over the highway. Everyone stopped and we had to pull off until the line passed. Luckily there was no hail or else the windshield would have been gone at the speed in which the wind was blowing.

Hwy 401 towards London near Ayr before line came through.

This happened between roughly 3:10pm - 3:25pm (both times I checked the block as the whole thing occurred). This corresponds with the OSPC's storm summary and their tornado reports. We were passing by Ayr at the same time as the tornado report but due to the fact that visibility was so pour we didn't see any rotation. From our vantage point it was all straight line winds. Further up the line there were tornado reports from Blandford-Blenheim as well as Fergus (all still under investigation).

After that line went through we had fairly low confidence that there would be any more storms in behind it. We drove around for a while monitoring current conditions then called it a day. After that line went through, all that was left was a giant zone of subsidence (NVA for all you weather nerds!). For those who don't know: subsidence is the downward motion of air. This inhibits cloud formation since we need rising motion for clouds to form.