Well it has definitely been a while since I've posted and updated this website ... I apologise. It's been a month and a half since I returned from my U.S. storm chase. It was quite the adventure. Weather-wise, it was less active than the 2010 season but we saw some great storms, a beautiful tornado near Ada, Oklahoma. If you want to see the pictures and videos from the 2011 or 2010 chase, visit the Photography and Video sections.
So ... Canadian active weather? Well June was somewhat eventful in Ontario but July has been quiet. So far there have been two official tornadoes this 2011 year:
- April 27 - F0 near Fergus, Ontario
- June 23 - F0 near Ottawa River moving into Aylmer, Quebec
June 8th was a very active day in Ontario with major storms rolling through causing a ton of wind damage. But southern Ontario in July? Not much at all ... Eastern Ontario is the exception, they've had quite a bit of thunderstorm activity this month. The GTA has been dry and inactive. Toronto's Pearson airport, as of today, has only recorded 4 mm of rain since July 1. The grass is brown and crunchy.
The Prairies have been very active this month with almost perpetual severe storms and tornado warnings. One of the most recent tornadic events was on July 7 just northwest of Calgary in the area around Sundre, Alberta. We had a nearly stationary supercell grind over this area for a couple of hours spawning 3 separate tornadoes. Here's a video of the tornado near Bergen, Alberta: Bergen, Alberta Tornado. The hail has also been massive as well with reports of baseball size hail.
So what's the severe weather looking like for this weekend? Let's break it down by province ...
Nothing much to speak of thunderstorm-wise. Saturday: there is a slight risk of an isolated thundershower in eastern New Brunswick from Fredericton eastward. Sunday: looks great, no storms forecasted.
With a ridge in place, no thunderstorms are forecast Saturday. Sunday: risk for thunderstorms around Quebec City and the Eastern Townships.
Saturday: slight risk of lake breeze thunderstorms or showers into the afternoon evening. Sunday: Risk of isolated severe thunderstorms from Windsor to Ottawa Valley. Models are suggesting southwestern Ontario is showing 1500 - 2000 J/kg CAPE, little capping. Shear is on the low end though. Eastern Ontario, models are putting in higher CAPE values with 1500 - 3000 J/kg, little capping. Again, shear is on the low end.
Isolated severe thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday. CAPE values are decent, little capping. However, shear is low.
Slight risk for severe thunderstorms through southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba along the international border on Saturday. The shear looks low but the CAPE values are high considering day times highs for portions of the southern Prairies are going to be into the 30's. Sunday the potential is there for some thunderstorms in southern Manitoba but the POP's are low.
Risk of some non-severe storms in the Interior both Saturday and Sunday but nothing severe.
So there's a quick overview of the thunderstorm activity this weekend. The other news? It's going to be HOT. Close to "heat wave" hot in portions of the Prairies and Ontario. Officially a heat wave is 3 or more consecutive days of 32°C or higher. Humidex values are going to be close to or above 40. Seriously, take it easy this weekend if you're in those areas of Canada.
I promise to update this website more. I'd like to do some more photography but the weather hasn't been cooperating. It's been sunny and gorgeous ... I want to photograph storms! Well, we still have a couple of months left for summer severe weather so here's hoping.