Exhaustion is starting to set in somewhat after only having one down, which was used to drive from Wichita, KS to Clovis, NM to capture the solar eclipse. But I'm not complaining since the start of the trio didn't really looks like it would amount to very much but it has proven to be the opposite. Today's chase was a challenge as storm motions were fast and things got messy in a hurry. Further north ingredients looked to have come together much better and I'll have to look into as to why in a post analysis when time permits. I figured the southern play had a better shot ear the triple point and southward with shear vectors more perpendicular to the dry line. I guess the moisture mixed out a little more than expected not really allowing for much to get going in the southern targets. The day was not a total loss as were able to observe some structure and lightning.
For today it looks as though we will be in the southwest portion of Oklahoma into the Childress Texas region. Things do looks subtle the main features here are the dual jets aloft and the 500 mb flow. Where the 250 and 500 mb jets lign up should make for great divergence in the upper levels with sufficient diffluence at the 250 mb level.
What is slightly disappointing are the lack of 850 mb low level winds, which should kick up near sunset but I have my concerns that it may not be enough. At the surface things do not looks to bad with some ok backed winds along the surface cold front/stationary boundary which should setup through NE OK down through the central portion of the state and in through to the Childress TX region. With CAPE looking to push into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and 700 mb temps between 5-10 degrees Celsius, energetic and capping looks to not be an issue tomorrow. What I am worried for is the lack of much stronger forcing and again the chance for the low level moisture to mix out which would leave us with elevated storms once again. Shear looks to be ok as well and I suspect the low level shear should be enhanced along the front. Thus looks like it’s down to the southern plains for the next few day and looks like Wichita Falls, TX may not be to bad of a starting point for today.